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The secret history of nuclear weapons

Mar 17, 2026
David Holloway, historian and emeritus professor at Stanford, maps the hidden international story of nuclear weapons. He recounts near-misses like the Cuban Missile Crisis and Berlin standoffs. He traces how Mutual Assured Destruction emerged, why proliferation stayed limited, and how shifts since the Cold War reshape nuclear incentives today.
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INSIGHT

How A Secret Deal Defused Cuba Crisis

  • The Cuban Missile Crisis nearly produced nuclear war due to miscalculation and pressure from military advisers.
  • Kennedy secretly offered to remove US missiles from Turkey while publicly guaranteeing not to invade Cuba, defusing the crisis.
INSIGHT

MAD Was A Critique That Became Famous

  • Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) became popular as critique and shorthand but was never official policy.
  • Thinkers like Thomas Schelling framed MAD as stability: mutual vulnerability prevents a first-strike advantage.
INSIGHT

Deterrence Worked But Is Not A Solution

  • Deterrence reduced risks but wasn't foolproof; it worked 'till we find something better' per Sakharov.
  • Holloway warns miscalculations and plans to use nuclear weapons keep the danger alive despite deterrence.
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