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Military Pressure As Leverage Not Just Regime Change
- The US appears to be using military pressure to extract concessions from Iran rather than purely to topple the regime.
- Charlie Gammell describes Trump wanting a 'decisive break' to break Iranian morale and force a diplomatic off-ramp or regime collapse.
Iran's Last-Minute Nuclear Concessions
- Iran offered to downblend and relocate 400 kg of highly enriched uranium and lower enrichment levels below 20% before strikes began.
- Gammell says those concessions suggested Tehran took US threats seriously, but any deal risked repeating JCPOA regional problems.
Mismatched Red Lines Sank Talks
- Negotiations stalled because Iran refused to negotiate regional behaviour, ballistic missiles, or proxies while the US wanted those issues on the table.
- Gammell argues mismatched red lines made a deal unlikely despite late rapprochement attempts.