Who’s Running Iran?
Mar 6, 2026
Karim Sadjadpour, a foreign policy analyst and Iran expert, maps Tehran’s power vacuum after Khamenei’s death and names likely interim leaders. He probes regime command-and-control strains, elite rivalries, succession prospects, the risks of arming Kurdish forces, and how US and Israeli actions might shape Iran’s future. Short, urgent scenes of political survival and fracturing loyalties unfold.
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Survival Trumps Ideological Purity
- Survival, not ideology, now unites regime figures; tactical compromises may be possible to preserve the system.
- Larijani may accept limited concessions to protect the regime, though full rapprochement with the U.S. is unlikely.
Succession Hinges On Three-Seat Legitimacy
- Succession choices reflect who can satisfy the IRGC, clergy, and public recognition simultaneously.
- Few figures meet all three criteria, which explains why Mojtaba and the late Raisi dominated succession speculation.
Why Hardliners Reject Controlled Reform
- Hardliners avoid reform because they fear that concessions accelerate collapse, invoking lessons from the Soviet Union.
- This 'pillars must not be removed' logic explains resistance to a China-style economic opening.

