The Business Worse than expected? Why Iran could trigger a major energy shock
Mar 5, 2026
Dr Amrita Sen, energy analyst focused on oil, LNG and shipping, and Richard Fletcher, business editor covering market reactions, discuss the Strait of Hormuz, tanker standstills and insurance pulls. They cover halted production, delayed restarts and why inventories may be masking price moves. They also examine Europe's LNG vulnerability, airline fuel pain and possible broader economic fallout.
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Straits Of Hormuz Is A Major Energy Choke Point
- The Straits of Hormuz are a critical choke point carrying about 30% of oil flows and just under 20% of LNG, so disruptions immediately affect global energy supplies.
- Amrita Sen highlights tankers are largely stalled despite the straits not being officially closed, creating immediate logistics and price pressure.
Insurers Pulled Coverage So Tankers Refuse To Transit
- Shipping has effectively frozen: insurers stopped war-risk coverage and most tankers refuse to transit, causing a standstill in flows even if ports remain open.
- Amrita Sen notes some firms switch off AIS to run the route, but that's an anomaly and not sustainable.
Production Shut Ins Take Weeks To Reverse
- Several producers are already shutting output because they cannot evacuate cargo: Iraq down ~3mbd, Qatar fully shut LNG and associated condensate, and restart takes weeks not hours.
- Amrita Sen warns shut-ins require technical procedures like water injection, so lost supply isn't a simple on/off swap.