The Indicator from Planet Money Polymarket bots, lithium found: lots!, marathon shoe thoughts
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May 1, 2026 A deep dive into how trading bots dominate prediction markets and concentrate profits. A surprising estimate of a massive lithium deposit in the Appalachians and the tradeoffs of scaling domestic mining. A look at lightweight marathon shoes, their tech-driven performance boosts, and the pressure they create to spend on gear.
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Polymarket Profits Are Highly Concentrated
- Polymarket profits concentrate heavily with a tiny minority of traders.
- University of Toronto found the top 1% of traders captured 76% of profits on the platform, showing extreme skew in returns.
Bots Win By Speed Not Superior Forecasts
- Bots dominate trading volume and capture better execution, not necessarily better predictions.
- Bloomberg analysis and research show bots made ~75% of Polymarket volume and got earlier, better prices despite lower predictive accuracy.
Appalachia Holds A Massive Lithium Resource
- The U.S. may have a large domestic lithium resource that could vastly reduce imports.
- USGS estimates 2.3 million metric tons in Appalachia, enough for 130 million EVs or 500 billion cell phones.