The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia || Peter Zeihan
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Apr 13, 2026 A deep look at how Persian Gulf oil export losses are reshaping global markets. Analysis of shifting export vulnerabilities after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. Exploration of Gulf states and Ukraine building drone and counter-drone industries. Discussion of a possible geopolitical realignment around Russia, Iran and Gulf interests.
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Persian Gulf Production Shock Is Long Lasting
- Persian Gulf oil exports collapsed from ~22 million bpd pre-war to ~10–12 million bpd, creating a global shortage of ~400–450 million barrels.
- Many shut-in fields will stay offline at least nine months post-conflict and some Iraqi wells for over two years, because they cannot be rapidly restarted.
Russia's Windfall Eroded By Ukrainian Strikes
- Early assumptions that Russia would be an unquestioned winner are now mixed because Ukrainian strikes and logistics constraints are forcing structural export losses.
- Ukrainian drone strikes have removed ~1.5–2 million bpd from Russian Baltic exports and Russia lacks pipeline alternatives to redirect flows.
Gulf Maneuvering Could Recreate 1985-Style Pressure On Russia
- Russia's active assistance to Iran complicates Gulf state calculations and could push Gulf Arabs toward strategies that weaken Russia long-term.
- Historical precedent: 1985 Saudi production increase aimed to bankrupt the USSR; similar dynamics may re-emerge favoring Europe and Ukraine versus Russia.