The Climate Question How hot could the planet get?
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Jan 25, 2026 
Kate Marvel, a NASA climate scientist and author who studies climate models and clouds. She explains how models create scenario-based projections. She explores uncertainties from plants, fires and especially clouds. She also connects climate science to emotions, from grief to active hope, and outlines the practical solutions that could limit warming.
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Projections Depend On Human Choices
- Projections are conditional: they show what happens if humans follow a given emissions story, not definitive predictions.
- Kate Marvel stresses that models 'project' futures depending on human choices, not predict them absolutely.
We’ve Never Done This Experiment Before
- Uncertainty about future warming arises because we've never forced the Earth this strongly before and don't know all system responses.
- Key unknowns include plant carbon uptake and how much emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere.
Clouds And Plants Are Wild Cards
- Clouds and plant carbon uptake are major wild cards that can amplify or dampen warming.
- Current best estimates suggest both cloud and carbon-cycle feedbacks will likely worsen warming.