The Morning Edition 'A crazy week' ahead: Leadership spills and more Liberal defections
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Feb 2, 2026 Sean Kelly, veteran political columnist known for sharp analysis of Australian federal politics, previews an 'absolutely crazy' week. He lays out looming leadership challenges, the risk of defections to One Nation, and whether the Coalition can reconsolidate. He also flags how interest-rate timing and polling pain could shape possible housing and tax reform moves.
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A Crazy Week Of Overlapping Crises
- The coming days could include multiple leadership spills and defections that together create extraordinary political chaos.
- Sean Kelly warns the coalition faces overlapping crises across both the Liberals and Nationals that feed into each other.
Mutual Need, Misaligned Incentives
- The Liberals and Nationals need each other to be taken seriously as government alternatives, yet leaders fear appearing weak by conceding to the other party.
- That misaligned incentive structure makes formal reunification fragile and politically costly for both sides.
Susan Ley's Leadership Is Structurally Weak
- Sean Kelly argues Susan Ley cannot win the leadership whatever she does because parts of her party never trusted her leadership.
- He links this distrust to factional conservative suspicion of moderate figures, echoing past tensions with leaders like Malcolm Turnbull.