The Fourcast Trump Iran Israel: Is this the first AI war?
10 snips
Mar 12, 2026 Arthur Holland-Michel, journalist and AI researcher on AI in modern warfare, and Emelia Probasco, former Navy officer and security policy expert, discuss AI’s growing role across conflicts. They cover AI use in Iran following Gaza, military adoption of LLMs and MAVENSmart, limits of AI against simple tactics, accountability around AI-assisted targeting, and risks of machine-speed autonomous systems.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
LLMs Are Newest Step In Wartime AI Scaling
- AI use in Iran builds on lessons from Israel's Gaza campaign and has scaled with new LLM tools introduced in 2024.
- Arthur Holland-Michel notes LLMs began appearing in operations in 2024 and may be more widely used now than in 2023.
AI Can't Fix Munitions Shortages
- AI speeds intelligence and targeting analysis but cannot solve constraints like limited munitions or broader diplomatic problems.
- Emelia Probasco warns generating targets is pointless if you lack weapons to strike them.
AI Upstream Can Erode Accountability
- Increasing AI influence upstream of lethal decisions risks eroding accountability because technical complexity makes attribution harder.
- Arthur Holland-Michel warns AI close to the 'button' complicates tracing who is responsible for harms.