The a16z Show H20s to China + 15% with Chris Miller and Lennart Heim
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Aug 14, 2025 
This discussion features Chris Miller, an expert on semiconductor strategy and author of "Chip War," alongside Lennart Heim from RAND, a technology policy specialist. They dissect the recent U.S. ban on Nvidia's H20 AI chips to China and the surprising reversal that allows sales after implementing a 15% export fee. The conversation highlights the geopolitical ramifications for AI competition, the importance of high-bandwidth memory, and the complexities of semiconductor export regulations amidst escalating tensions between the U.S. and China.
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Flops Vs Memory Bandwidth: Different Risks
- GPUs have orthogonal specs: flops (training) versus memory bandwidth (deployment/inference).
- The H20 is weak on flops but strong on memory bandwidth, making it valuable for inference and deployment use cases.
Quantity Can Outweigh Per-Chip Quality
- Quantity of chips sold can matter more than per-chip quality for ecosystem impact.
- Selling millions of H20s could dwarf domestic Chinese production and accelerate deployment even if Huawei can make some chips.
Cap Exports By Quantity, Not Just Specs
- Limit the quantity of exported advanced GPUs to prevent rapid capability diffusion.
- Focus export policy on reducing volume, not only per-chip specs.
