Kitco NEWS Banks Are Squeezing The Physical Gold Supply: Daniel Oliver Explains Phase Two Volatility
Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron sits down with Daniel Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital, to analyze the shifting mechanics of the global gold market and the approaching private credit cycle. Oliver argues that the smooth accumulation phase of the gold bull market is officially over. He details how the market is now entering a volatile second phase driven by stress spreading throughout the U.S. credit system.
During the interview, Oliver outlines the specific pressures facing the Federal Reserve. He highlights a $10 trillion maturity wall and explains the mathematical impossibility of the central bank shrinking its balance sheet while simultaneously attempting to lower interest rates. He further explains how the private equity industry's massive leverage is setting a trap for policymakers, noting that printing money cannot solve underlying insolvency in sectors like commercial real estate.
The conversation also uncovers a hidden squeeze in the physical market. Oliver reveals how nervous banks are tightening margin requirements on smelters. This action forces these entities to shrink their processing pipelines, which directly restricts the physical gold supply entering the broader market and exacerbates price volatility.
Finally, Oliver unpacks the historical relationship between central bank balance sheets and gold reserves. By applying 19th-century banking standards to the modern financial system, he lays out the exact math that points to significantly higher gold valuations.
"Gold has to go to a price that rebalances the Fed's balance sheet, and $8,000 currently gets you to about a third, $12,000 gets you around a half," states Oliver.
Interview recorded on February 25, 2026.
00:00 Gold and Silver Update
01:15 Dollar Weaponization Shift
02:26 Stocks Priced in Gold
04:24 Real Time Inflation Pricing
06:59 Gold vs Silver Cycles
08:34 Why Silver Is Surging
11:31 Three Phase Gold Bull
14:58 Private Credit Bubble Risks
17:31 Liquidity and ETF Fragility
21:03 Fed Trapped on Rates
24:23 Debt Spiral and Politics
26:58 Unsustainable US Debt Math
28:29 Crash vs Slow Repression
28:44 Why Crashes Matter
30:00 Gold Supply Squeeze
33:38 Volatility and Leverage
35:16 Why Miners Lag Gold
38:59 What Sparks a Mania
44:21 Gold Versus Fed Balance
50:09 Digital Money Control Risks
52:50 Gold as Lifeboat
55:18 Closing Thoughts
#Gold #Silver #FederalReserve #DanielOliver #KitcoNews #Economy #Investing #Macroeconomics
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Disclaimer:
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
Disclaimer:
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.