Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE
Mar 26, 2026
Mario Braga, Latin America geopolitical strategist at RANE, provides concise analysis of Cuba's crisis and U.S. pressure. He traces historical roots, energy shortfalls and migration surges. He discusses regional dynamics, Russia and China’s limited options, negotiations for survival, and whether Cuba could pivot toward tourism and investment-led recovery.
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Rare Protests Signal Humanitarian Tipping Point
- Recent multi-city protests in Cuba are rare and driven by a deep humanitarian crisis—rolling blackouts, no water, suspended classes, and food shortages.
- Protest tactics included night-time pot-banging, university walkouts, and attempts to burn Communist Party offices despite heavy repression risk.
Back Channels Show Cuba May Bargain For Survival
- Back-channel talks involved Castro family power brokers engaging the U.S. as Cuba faces imminent collapse without oil.
- Cuba may offer economic liberalization and private-sector opening to Washington as a path for regime survival rather than outright overthrow.
U.S. Strategy Looks To Manage Rather Than Topple
- The likeliest U.S. goal is regime influence, not wholesale invasion: secure economic concessions and a friendlier leadership to enable private investment.
- Washington prefers a managed transition to preserve stability and attract business rather than create chaotic collapse.