Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast Housing Market Update 2026: Rates Rise, Inventory Tightens | Mike Simonsen
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Apr 2, 2026 Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist at Compass who provides data-driven US housing analysis, breaks down rising mortgage rates, shifting inventory, and slowing rent growth. He explains global forces pushing rates, why sales plunged while prices held, regional inventory twists, and why conservative underwriting and cash-flow focus matter now.
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War Can Raise Mortgage Rates Through Inflation Fear
- Global events can push mortgage rates higher through oil-driven inflation fears rather than a flight to safety.
- Mike Simonsen notes rates rose from ~5.99% to ~6.5% as markets reacted to oil and inflation, not treasury demand.
Don't Try To Time Rate Bottoms
- Avoid trying to time the bottom of mortgage rates because sudden 50 basis point moves are possible and unpredictable.
- Simonsen warns buyers who waited for lower rates were surprised when rates quickly reversed upward after geopolitical news.
Household Formation Links Rents And Prices
- Home prices and rents move together driven by household formation, so economic slowdowns suppress both simultaneously.
- Simonsen explains kids staying home longer or delayed household formation reduces demand for buying and renting.