In it to Win it Gold Still Leads Commodities in Risk-Reward, Says Adrian Day
Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, joins the discussion to share his outlook on global markets, commodities, and the macro forces shaping resource investing.
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Recording Date 3-10-2026. The conversation covers geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, how markets typically react to conflict, and why commodities such as gold and oil often move ahead of major geopolitical events through a "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic. Day also discusses the current positioning of energy markets, explaining why oil stocks had already rallied prior to recent conflict risks and how supply disruptions, shipping routes, and global liquidity needs can influence commodity prices.
Adrian also explores the outlook for major commodities including gold, silver, copper, uranium, and agricultural markets. Day explains why he believes gold offers the strongest risk-reward profile due to central bank buying and limited retail participation, while copper remains attractive because of long-term supply shortages tied to electrification and infrastructure demand. Additional topics include mining costs driven by energy prices, the impact of commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollar, farmland and agriculture investments, and the broader outlook for commodity markets heading into 2026.
Key Insights in this episode
✅ Geopolitical events often push gold and oil prices higher before the actual conflict occurs. ✅ Gold's recent moves are driven more by the U.S. dollar and liquidity than by war itself. ✅ Oil stocks had already risen before tensions because companies were buying back shares and paying strong dividends. ✅ Diesel and energy prices are the biggest cost factors for mining companies. ✅ Gold remains attractive due to strong central bank demand and limited retail participation. ✅ Copper is bullish long term because global supply may not meet future demand. ✅ Uranium is still a long-term opportunity but may need pullbacks before new entries.
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Chapters
00:40 Adrian Day is Back on the show! 01:23 Global Markets and Geopolitical Outlook 04:49 Gold Reaction: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News 07:41 Gold Liquidity and Oil Stock Moves 10:35 Oil Stock Strategy and Covered Calls 11:57 Oil ETF (XLE) and Market Positioning 15:23 Outlook for Agricultural Commodities 19:15 Energy Costs and Mining Profitability 23:13 Commodity Currencies and Mining Costs 23:59 B2Gold Company Outlook 26:39 Top Commodity Picks for 2026 30:07 Gold Price Floor Analysis 31:10 Silver Outlook and Demand Drivers 32:04 China Demand and Precious Metals Flows 33:09 Copper Price Floor Outlook 34:00 Uranium Long-Term Investment Case 34:23 Closing Remarks & Where to Follow Adrian Day
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. I only express my opinion based on my experience, and your experience may be different. These videos are for educational and motivational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Do your own due diligence. Every investment and bet comes with the risk that your capital could go to zero.
WHAT I DO: I spread out my investments. It's not all on one thing. For every bet that I make, I devote one hour of study per month to that investment. I keep the number of bets to what I can feasibly study.
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