The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: The State of Syria, with Charles Lister
Mar 13, 2026
Charles Lister, senior fellow and head of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute, offers on-the-ground expertise. He walks through Syria’s rapid political shift and the new transitional government. He discusses the Syrian Democratic Forces’ status, negotiations to integrate forces, Turkey’s changing role, the U.S. policy pivot, and risks like detainees, displacement, and looming flashpoints.
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Transitional Government Chose Foreign Policy First
- Syria's transitional government prioritized rapid foreign-policy reintegration to regain legitimacy after Assad's fall.
- Charles Lister notes 2025 was "Syria's coming out from the cold," achieving sanctions relief, UN access, and high-level meetings within a year.
SDF Held Strategic Leverage Over Syria's Resources
- The SDF controlled 25% of Syria and about 80% of its natural resources, making integration a central domestic challenge.
- Lister explains US-mediated talks produced a framework but failed publicly, leaving tensions to escalate into conflict in early 2026.
Plan B Succeeded When Tribes Flipped Overnight
- Damascus prepared a military "plan B" after failed deadlines for US-mediated talks, then swiftly used tribal networks when conflict began.
- Lister recounts tribes flipped within 12 hours, and 75–80% of SDF territory shifted to government control almost bloodlessly.