From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano Recession Odds Are Rising... But A 2008-Level Crash Is NOT Happening
Mar 25, 2026
Discussion of rising recession odds and the market signals behind them. Exploration of drivers like oil shocks, stagflation fears, labor weakness, and geopolitical risk. Argument that monetary tools can avert a 2008-style crash. Debate over AI’s impact on engineering roles and how hiring is changing. A look at quiet wealth accumulation and structural forces fueling long-term asset gains.
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Elevated Recession Risk Without Consensus
- Recession odds are rising but remain below 50% across major models, signaling elevated risk rather than certainty.
- Anthony Pompliano cites Moody's (48.6%), Goldman Sachs (30%), Williamston Trust (45%), Polymarket (35%) and Koushi (32%) to show markets see more risk but not a majority probability.
Expect Aggressive Central Bank Response In Recession
- Don't assume a 2008-style financial collapse because central banks now have a playbook to aggressively cut rates and provide liquidity.
- Pompliano argues the Fed can drop rates to zero and print trillions, which should blunt deep systemic crisis effects.
AI Coincides With Growing Engineering Openings
- AI hasn't collapsed engineering demand; engineering job openings are the highest in over three years since ChatGPT's debut.
- Citing Lenny Rautsky, Pompliano notes ~67,000 global openings and ~26,000 in the U.S., with openings accelerating this year.