Rebel Capitalist News You Won't Believe The New GDP Data
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Jan 23, 2026 Surprising GDP revisions that jump to 4.4% and why that number shocks economists. A look at a longer downward trend that conflicts with the headline spike. Tension between strong GDP and weakening payrolls is explored. Wealthy consumer spending and AI capex are offered as possible drivers. A discussion of price-switching and which metric might eventually reconcile the divergence.
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Surprising GDP Revision Spike
- The BEA revised Q3 2025 US real GDP sharply upward to 4.4%, the highest since 2023.
- George Gammon warns the headline reversal contradicts recent downward trend and seems unbelievable on its face.
Labor Market Contradicts GDP
- Nonfarm payrolls show consistent negatives in 2025, signaling labor weakness that conflicts with strong real GDP.
- Gammon highlights Jerome Powell's comment that payrolls may be overstated by ~60,000 jobs monthly, implying actual weakness.
K-Shaped Economy Visualized
- The K-shaped economy explains divergent outcomes: booming asset prices vs. collapsing consumer sentiment.
- Gammon uses the S&P and University of Michigan survey divergence to show winners and losers since the pandemic.