Reuters Morning Bid Week in Review: Trump tries to steady markets
Mar 28, 2026
Coverage of shifting rhetoric around the Iran conflict and how it is unsettling markets. Discussion of oil price swings and why worst-case energy shocks have not materialized. Examination of stress in US Treasury auctions and cautious trader positioning. Notes on safe-haven flows, fading gold appeal, and a stronger dollar.
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Market Timing Depends On Trump's Rhetoric
- Oil traders struggle to price risk because President Trump times statements after market sell-offs and weekends when markets are closed.
- Trump extended a 10-day deadline for strikes and traders watch gasoline above $4 and diesel at $5 to predict when he might de-escalate.
Upside Oil Risk Hinges On Conflict Duration
- Extreme oil prices remain possible but haven't materialised; traders still price a quick resolution while warning $150–$200 is feasible if conflict persists.
- Macquarie warned that continuation until end of June plus 11 million locked barrels in the Gulf raise upside risk.
Energy Shock May Destroy Demand Not Reignite Inflation
- The OECD forecasts G10 inflation could hit about 4% and US inflation 4.2%, but many economists call that too high given weaker labour markets.
- Unlike 2022, lower wage pressure and weaker demand mean energy shocks may destroy demand rather than re-ignite broad inflation.