School of War Ep 280: Mike Doran on the Iran War
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Mar 2, 2026 
Mike Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, explains the Iran conflict as a race of exhaustion. He outlines Iran’s calibrated retaliation, limits of interceptors and counterstrikes, and three possible end states for the regime. He also details deep U.S.-Israel operational integration and what to watch next.
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Endurance Is The Core Strategic Test
- The campaign is a test of endurance where both sides push maximum operational tempo to see who exhausts first.
- Israelis flew 200 aircraft with multiple daily sorties while Iran launched unprecedented missile barrages and tried to regionalize the fight.
Iran's Retaliation Is Calculated Pressure
- Iran's regional strikes are calculated, not purely emotional, aimed at raising diplomatic and economic pressure on the U.S. and allies.
- Tehran avoids activating sleeper cells or attacking Saudi oil fields, preferring pressure via Gulf hits and disrupting oil routes like Hormuz.
Survival Equals Victory For Tehran
- Iran aims to deplete allied interceptor stocks and create political pain for Trump to force negotiation.
- The regime's yardstick for victory is survival: if leadership remains, Tehran considers itself successful.