The Top Line

Trump's tariff threats, measured by manufacturing

Feb 20, 2026
Brady McKinney, a pharmaceuticals risk underwriter covering the Americas at Atradius, explains recent shifts in pharma manufacturing after tariff threats. He outlines the 2025 production surge, regional differences, why 2026 should normalize, and how reshoring, contract manufacturing and tariff flare-ups shape future investment and supply-chain strategies.
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INSIGHT

Tariff Rhetoric Triggered A Global Production Spike

  • Global pharmaceutical production surged to about 9.1% in 2025 as companies front‑loaded output to hedge against US tariff threats.
  • Atradius expects a slowdown in 2026 and normalization in 2027 as inventories are sold into the market.
INSIGHT

Regional Responses Varied Sharply

  • US production grew ~5.2% in 2025 driven by stockpiling and reshoring signals from policy threats.
  • The EU and UK showed an even larger jump (~21.6%) with an expected contraction in 2026 then normalization in 2027.
INSIGHT

China’s Growth Fueled By Domestic Demand

  • China grew 3.6% in 2025 and is forecast to accelerate to ~6.6% in 2026 due to its large domestic market.
  • Tariff efforts aim to reduce reliance on China, but domestic demand will sustain Chinese growth.
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