The Joseph Carlson Show The Worst Case Scenario Just Happened
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Mar 9, 2026 Oil surges past $100 after the Strait of Hormuz closure and global shipments grind to a halt. A major AI company sues the Trump administration over blacklist designation and contract risks. Netflix buys Ben Affleck’s AI studio to boost in-house production tools. Viral CEO food-review videos spark a contest of authenticity, with one clearly standing out.
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Why The Strait Of Hormuz Shocks Oil Markets
- The Strait of Hormuz closure can immediately spike crude from mid-$60s to near $100 per barrel within days.
- About 20% of global oil and LNG transits this 25-mile choke point, forcing producers to curtail output when tankers can't pass.
Closed Strait Causes Cascading Commodity Disruptions
- Closure cascades beyond oil: filled storage forces producers to shut wells and curtail output, amplifying price shocks.
- Secondary effects hit aluminum, fertilizer, shipping and can take months to reverse due to logistics and restart times.
Markets Too Optimistic On Duration Of Shock
- Markets priced the shock as quick and reversible, but Mohamed El-Erian judges that there's only about a 50% chance of a short-lived disruption.
- He warns repeated violent shocks and constrained policy room make volatility likelier this year.