The Front Page As fuel concerns grow, Act and NZ First rise while National slips
Mar 25, 2026
Liam Hehir, a lawyer and political commentator on New Zealand politics, polls and policy. He discusses National’s slipping poll trajectory and Luxon’s personal approval challenges. He explains how to read polls beyond single results, why ACT and NZ First are strengthening, and how the fuel crisis and coalition tensions shape political fortunes.
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Polls Show Direction Not Single Data Points
- Polls are tools that reveal direction of travel rather than single decisive results.
- Multiple polls showing National slipping below ~30% indicate a real negative trend for Christopher Luxon, not just noise.
National Could Win Without Being Largest Party
- National risks being second-largest party yet still returning to government via coalition, an uncomfortable position for the party.
- Historical expectations about largest party forming government may not hold and National could be re-elected without being largest.
Rely On Poll Patterns Not Single Results
- Use aggregated polling patterns to set election-year expectations rather than reacting to single polls.
- Look for sustained trends from multiple polls starting around this time of the campaign for realistic forecasting.