Paul Lejuez, retail analyst covering department stores, specialty softlines, broadlines and food retailing. He breaks down who counts as the consumer and why employment matters. He talks about tax refunds and short-term spending boosts. He examines tariff pass-through and AI’s potential to reshape retail and brands.
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insights INSIGHT
Consumer Is Not One Single Group
The U.S. consumer is highly heterogeneous, not a single monolith.
Employment strength is the common thread supporting resilience across income groups.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Treat Refunds As A Short-Term Boost
Expect tax refunds to temporarily boost spending and near-term retail data.
Avoid using refunds as a long-term investment thesis for structurally challenged retailers.
insights INSIGHT
Tariffs Aren't Crushing Price Elasticity—Yet
Tariff pass-through to consumers has been easier than many companies expected.
Broader price increases may still arrive in the first half of the year and will interact with refunds.
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Scott Chronert, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, sits down with Paul Lejuez, who covers U.S. Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, Broadlines and Food Retailing, to talk about the state of the U.S. consumer. Discussion topics include how to define "the consumer," the question of tariffs, and how AI could reshape retail.
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