Housing Unpacked How Global Energy Shocks Will Shape UK Politics, Inflation and the Housing Market
Mar 12, 2026
James Nation, former Treasury special adviser and deputy head of the Number 10 Policy Unit now at Forefront Advisors, joins to unpack how Middle East conflicts and energy shocks complicate UK politics. He discusses 2022 lessons on price caps, how market monitoring shapes fiscal choices, risks to fiscal headroom, mortgage rate unpredictability, and the pressures around the autumn Budget and housing ambitions.
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Starmer's Caution Reflects Public Mood And Legal Risk
- Keir Starmer's initial caution on UK involvement reflected public scepticism after Iraq and legal advice highlighting international law issues.
- James warned the bigger vulnerability is perceived UK capability to protect assets and citizens in the region.
Wait Before Announcing Cost Of Living Support
- Treasury advice will be to wait before large fiscal support; the immediate price cap is locked and the July assessment matters more.
- James noted petrol price pass-through is faster and fuel duty pencilled for September is politically contentious.
Monetary Policy Will Lean Toward Holding
- The Bank of England is likely to hold at its next meeting to judge if the shock is temporary, but cuts later this year are now less certain.
- James emphasised uncertainty feeds into volatile swap markets and mortgage pricing.