Global fertility rates aren’t just falling: the rate of decline is accelerating. From 2006 to 2016, fertility dropped gradually, but since 2016 the rate of decline has increased 4.5-fold. In many wealthy countries, fertility is now below 1.5. While we don’t notice it yet, in time that will mean the population halves every 60 years.
Rob Wiblin is already a parent and Luisa Rodriguez is about to be, which prompted the two hosts of the show to get together to chat about all things parenting — including why it is that far fewer people want to join them raising kids than did in the past.
Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/lrrw
While “kids are too expensive” is the most common explanation, Rob argues that money can’t be the main driver of the change: richer people don’t have many more children now, and we see fertility rates crashing even in countries where people are getting much richer.
Instead, Rob points to a massive rise in the opportunity cost of time, increasing expectations parents have of themselves, and a global collapse in socialising and coupling up. In the EU, the rate of people aged 25–35 in relationships has dropped by 20% since 1990, which he thinks will “mechanically reduce the number of children.” The overall picture is a big shift in priorities: in the US in 1993, 61% of young people said parenting was an important part of a flourishing life for them, vs just 26% today.
That leads Rob and Luisa to discuss what they might do to make the burden of parenting more manageable and attractive to people, including themselves.
In this non-typical episode, we take a break from the usual heavy topics to discuss the personal side of bringing new humans into the world, including:
- Rob’s updated list of suggested purchases for new parents
- How parents could try to feel comfortable doing less
- How beliefs about childhood play have changed so radically
- What matters and doesn’t in childhood safety
- Why the decline in fertility might be impractical to reverse
- Whether we should care about a population crash in a world of AI automation
This episode was recorded on September 12, 2025.
Chapters:
- Cold open (00:00:00)
- We're hiring (00:01:26)
- Why did Luisa decide to have kids? (00:02:10)
- Ups and downs of pregnancy (00:04:15)
- Rob’s experience for the first couple years of parenthood (00:09:39)
- Fertility rates are massively declining (00:21:25)
- Why do fewer people want children? (00:29:20)
- Is parenting way harder now than it used to be? (00:38:56)
- Feeling guilty for not playing enough with our kids (00:48:07)
- Options for increasing fertility rates globally (01:00:03)
- Rob’s transition back to work after parental leave (01:12:07)
- AI and parenting (01:29:22)
- Screen time (01:42:49)
- Ways to screw up your kids (01:47:40)
- Highs and lows of parenting (01:49:55)
- Recommendations for babies or young kids (01:51:37)
Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon Monsour
Music: CORBIT
Camera operator: Jeremy Chevillotte
Coordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore
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