The Milk Road Show The Catalysts That Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Breakout w/ Matt Hougan
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Feb 11, 2026 
Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO and crypto institutional strategist, explains why the bear market likely began in Jan 2025. He walks through the causes of the Feb 5 crash and how no-bid dynamics amplify selloffs. He weighs risks like the four-year cycle and quantum fears, and explores future catalysts: stablecoins, tokenization, AI-Fi, and institutional adoption.
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Two Markets, One Winter
- Matt Hougan noticed a split market in Jan 2025 where ETF-backed assets held small losses while non-institutional tokens plunged ~60–70%.
- That divergence convinced him crypto winter had already begun despite institutional optimism.
Board Chart That Revealed The Winter
- Hougan recounts plotting top ten crypto assets for Bitwise's board and seeing non-ETF tokens down 60–70% by January 2025.
- That chart was the moment he accepted the bear market had already arrived.
No Bid Equals Rapid Crash
- Hougan lists OG selling ahead of the four-year cycle as the primary conditioning factor behind the February 5 crash.
- He says the immediate trigger was a general risk-off move that removed buyers, creating a one-sided book with no bid.