The Current Skyrocketing airfares may be here to stay
Apr 16, 2026
John Gradek, an aviation lecturer and former Air Canada executive, breaks down the jet fuel crunch driving higher fares. He explains rising base prices and added surcharges. He warns of regional supply shortages, possible route cuts and cancellations, and why elevated prices could persist.
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Airlines Are Hiding Fuel Costs In Regular Fares
- Airlines are rolling fuel costs into base fares rather than just adding visible surcharges.
- John Gradek explains Air Canada and WestJet added small surcharges but mainly raised regular airfares to recoup fuel expenses.
Expect Targeted Price Hikes Based On Route Value
- Expect airlines to calibrate price increases so they recover costs without scaring off passengers.
- Gradek notes a $50 add on a $1,200 long-haul ticket is tolerable, but the same on short domestic hops becomes unacceptable.
Tax Cut Is Symbolic Not Transformative For Jet Fuel
- Cutting the federal four-cent excise tax on aviation fuel will barely move prices because fuel costs have roughly doubled.
- Gradek contrasts pre-war aviation fuel at $70–$80/barrel with current $170–$180/barrel refined jet fuel prices.