The David Lin Report Sentiment Hits 40-Year Low, Brace For Massive Job Losses? | Joanne Hsu
Nov 20, 2025
Joanne Hsu, Director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan, dives into alarming trends in consumer sentiment, now at levels not seen since 1981. She discusses the fear of job losses amid inflation worries, how recent government shutdowns have affected SNAP recipients, and rising reports of weaker incomes. Hsu contrasts inflation expectations with consumer confidence and explores the Fed's dilemma of balancing inflation against rising unemployment. The conversation also touches on the potential long-term impact of AI on jobs.
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Tariff Worries Outweigh Shutdown Fears
- The government shutdown briefly raised awareness but tariffs remain the dominant concern.
- Hsu notes about 10% mentioned the shutdown while ~60% continued to mention tariffs and pass-through to prices.
Big Purchases Postponed Due To Income Risk
- Consumers avoid big-ticket purchases because they fear income risk and long installment commitments.
- Preliminary November data showed a jump from 20% to 29% saying weakening incomes drag down their finances.
Consumers Expect Higher Unemployment Ahead
- Inflation expectations eased from April/May peaks but remain elevated and consumers fear future inflation.
- Hsu reports 71% expect unemployment to rise and many anticipate job loss for themselves or spouses over five years.