Macro Voices MacroVoices #486 David Rosenberg: Navigating Choppy Waters
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Jun 26, 2025 
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, offers a keen economic outlook as they dive into the fluctuations of the equity markets and rising inflation. He highlights the delicate balance between investor confidence and traditional fundamentals, warning against current market optimism. The discussion also tackles the strong performance of precious metals like gold compared to silver and platinum, alongside bearish energy market sentiments. Rosenberg emphasizes key economic indicators that could reshape investment strategies amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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Stocks Valued as Riskless Assets
- The market values stocks as if they carry zero risk relative to Treasuries, with an equity risk premium near zero.
- Such rare valuation implies investors view stocks as riskless assets now.
Signs Point to Current Recession
- The U.S. economy is likely already in recession as real GDP shows contraction trends.
- Cracks in housing and labor markets signal slowing growth despite conflicting official positives.
Recent Rally Driven by Sentiment
- The recent stock rally is multiple-driven and momentum-based, not earnings-driven.
- Market exuberance discounts removed geopolitical and trade war risks, possibly overestimating stimulus effects.