HousingWire Daily Housing demand remains positive for now
5 snips
Mar 17, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst who tracks housing and mortgage trends, discusses how mortgage rate shifts and spreads are shaping current housing demand. He walks through weekly tracker data showing purchase activity and pending sales. They also consider inventory trends, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict, and implications for the 2026 housing outlook.
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Spreads Kept Mortgage Rates Far Below 7 Percent
- Mortgage spreads insulated borrowers in early 2026 so mortgage rates stayed below typical 7% levels despite 10-year yield volatility.
- Logan Mohtashami showed weekly-spread math: using 2023–2025 spreads would push rates into 7%+ territory this March.
Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Reverse Spread Improvement
- A prolonged Iran conflict could widen spreads and trigger recessionary pressures via sustained oil and commodity spikes.
- Historically oil shocks often precede recessions, so multi-month escalation risks hurting economic activity and housing demand.
Current Rate Curve Still Historically Low Thanks To Spreads
- Even after Friday's reversal, current mortgage-rate curve remains the lowest in years because spreads are better than prior years.
- Logan emphasized spreads as the unsung hero preventing a full return to 7%+ mortgage rates.