It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterms: Trump Voters, Swing States & the Senate Map

What will decide the 2026 midterm elections? The numbers behind the voters may hold the answer.

Ryan is joined by Jessica Anderson, President of Sentinel Action Fund, to break down new multi-state focus groups examining voters in key battlegrounds including Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Maine. The study reveals major differences between low-propensity Trump voters and critical swing voters—and why Republicans need both groups to win in a midterm environment.

They discuss how voters view the Trump agenda, the economy, immigration, and tax cuts, along with growing issues like crypto policy and regulatory reform that are shaping voter attitudes. The conversation also dives into the most competitive Senate races in the country, including North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine, and what the data shows about candidates like Sherrod Brown, Susan Collins, and emerging Republican challengers.

Plus: why “chaos fatigue” among swing voters, population shifts in key states, and the balance between loyalty to Trump and independent leadership could determine control of Congress.

If you want to understand the real numbers driving the 2026 battleground map, this episode breaks it all down.

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