NatSec Matters US-Iran Summit - Taming Mideast Volatility: Gregory Brew
Feb 4, 2026
Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group and Iran specialist, discusses the high-stakes Istanbul summit. He explains U.S. demands on nukes, missiles, and proxies. He outlines the role of U.S. military pressure, Tehran’s internal credibility crisis, and why strikes remain likely. He also covers regional calculations, possible Iranian targets, and how oil and China factor into the outcome.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Use Talks To Strengthen Any Case For Force
- Offer diplomacy first to see what concessions pressure yields before using force.
- Use a rejected offer as a clearer justification for military action if necessary.
Strikes Are The Base Case
- Brew's base case is that the U.S. will strike if talks fail, driven by political pressure on President Trump to act.
- He expects significant but calibrated strikes targeting nuclear and missile infrastructure rather than an outright regime-collapse campaign.
Israel Likely A Primary Target, Not Co-Leader
- Israel may not co-lead strikes but expects to be a primary Iranian retaliation target.
- The U.S. likely leads operations while Israel bears significant retaliatory risk.