Shift Key with Robinson Meyer The Oil Industry Will Never Be the Same
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Mar 27, 2026 Karim Fawaz, an S&P Global Energy director and oil and refineries expert, breaks down how the Iran war has reshaped global energy. He explains the scale and duration risks of supply disruptions. He highlights why jet fuel and Asia are under acute strain. He explores refinery shutdowns, strategic stockpiles versus lost flows, and how the shock could speed electrification while complicating climate choices.
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Supply Crisis Is Already The Largest Ever
- The market has passed the brief-window phase and is now in an active supply crisis caused by prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
- Karim Fawaz says the original short disruption window closed after a few weeks, turning flow losses into the largest volume supply crisis in history.
Crude Flow Losses Cascade Into Refined Product Shortages
- The disruption is a double-digit barrels-per-day shock that cascades more severely into refined products, especially jet fuel.
- Karim notes 12 mb/d of crude flow disruption against ~100 mb/d global supply, causing 20–30% refined-product shocks.
Jet Fuel Market Faces Acute 25% Disruption
- Jet fuel has been hit especially hard because its traded market is small and a large share came from the Gulf.
- Karim estimates Asia's jet fuel traded market ~2 mb/d with ~0.5 mb/d from the Gulf — a ~25% disruption.