Today in Focus Oscars 2026: who should win … and who actually will? – The Latest
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Mar 13, 2026 
Catherine Shoard, Guardian film editor and critic, offers sharp analysis of awards season and Oscars predictions. She breaks down the late race between Sinners and One Battle After Another. She explains new voting rules, momentum shifts from SAG and BAFTA, campaign gaffes and why Jessie Buckley is the clear best actress favourite.
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New Rules Made Late Voting Decisive
- New voting rules forced Oscar voters to actually watch nominated films before voting.
- Catherine Shoard explains a platform requirement meant voters prove they'd seen films, creating a late flurry of votes in the final weeks.
BAFTA Outburst Reboosted Sinners Campaign
- BAFTA moment where a campaigner shouted the N-word renewed interest in Sinners and highlighted Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo handling it with dignity.
- Shoard says that onstage composure after the incident pushed Delroy Lindo into frontrunner conversation as voting closed.
Trade Ballots Differ From Some Critics' Picks
- Trade magazine anonymous ballots suggested One Battle After Another will win Best Picture and Paul Thomas Anderson Best Director.
- Shoard contrasts those ballots with her own vote for Sinners and Ryan Coogler, showing the race is close.