The Blunt Dollar Karl Rogers: What Finance Textbooks Get Completely Wrong
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Jan 27, 2026 Karl Rogers, CIO at Elkstone and former prop trader in commodities and US electricity, builds investment platforms and teaches finance. He recounts trading in oil and power and explains how that experience reshaped his approach. He challenges forecasting, defends scenario-based portfolio construction, and explores behavioral armor, alternatives to 60/40, and practical steps to avoid panic selling.
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Trading Electricity Rewired His Thinking
- Karl Rogers described trading US electricity where day-ahead prices lock positions for the next day's real-time market.
- He explained that success required fundamental analysis of weather, transmission and demand curves rather than chart patterns.
Trading Is A Lifestyle With Fast Feedback
- Karl recalled the intense pressure of prop trading where overnight positions and P&L instantly judge you.
- He compared trading to a lifestyle that forces fast learning and constant innovation.
Forecast Accuracy ≠ Investment Edge
- Karl says forecasts lack value when everyone shares the same view because accurate consensus brings no edge.
- He recommends building portfolios robust to scenarios instead of positioning on short-term forecasts.
