HousingWire Daily The drop in existing home sales and what’s happening with inventory
12 snips
Feb 13, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead housing market analyst known for data-driven takes on existing sales and inventory. He explains why January sales fell and why weather and seasonality matter. He breaks down inventory figures and what a healthy supply looks like. He outlines forecasts, rate impacts, regional hotspots, and why balance matters heading into spring.
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Holiday And Weather Distort Monthly Sales
- Seasonal holidays and winter weather can produce large, temporary drops in existing home sales that distort monthly reports.
- Logan Mohtashami urges focusing on trend and forward-looking data instead of one-month swings caused by closures and snow.
Inventory Level Shows Market Balance
- Current active inventory near 1.22 million reflects a seasonal decline but remains within a functioning supply-demand range historically.
- Logan expects a balanced market and forecasts rising existing home sales in 2026 if rates stay near 6.25%.
Don’t Bank On Big Rate Drops
- Monitor mortgage rates and affordability rather than hoping for dramatic rate moves without recession.
- Logan advises not to rely on rates dropping below ~5.75% unless a recession forces policy easing.