Pints With Aquinas Do You Need Extraordinary Evidence to Believe in the Resurrection?
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Apr 5, 2026 A close look at what people mean by "extraordinary" and how that changes what counts as evidence. A Bayesian-style take on how prior beliefs shape what persuades someone. A comparison of rare scientific events and historical claims. A focused review of the historical case for the resurrection and what counts as sufficient evidence.
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Two Different Meanings Of Extraordinary
- The phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" conflates two senses of extraordinary, creating an ambiguous standard.
- Matt Fradd distinguishes a descriptive sense (rare event) from a psychological sense (emotionally overwhelming evidence).
Priors Depend On Worldview
- A Bayesian reading says low prior probability needs strong confirming evidence, but priors depend on worldview.
- Relative to theism and Jesus's context, the resurrection's prior isn't as low, so it should be weighed on historical grounds.
Require Sufficient Evidence Not Awe
- Evaluate rare events by whether the available evidence supports that they occurred, not by whether the evidence feels overwhelming.
- Use the same evidential standard scientists use for unique events like the Big Bang: best available supporting evidence.