Battleground 382. Putin’s Windfall, Gerasimov’s Fictions, and Moral Equivalence
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Mar 20, 2026 A wide look at how the Israel-Iran war is reshaping geopolitics and its knock-on effects in Ukraine. Discussion of Russia’s short-term gains from higher energy prices and whether tanker seizures can blunt that windfall. On-the-ground reporting from Ukrainian front lines, contrasting battlefield claims with observed realities. Investigation into Prigozhin rumours and the limits of Western leverage as US policy shifts loom.
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Putin's Energy Windfall From Middle East Shock
- Surging oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict give Putin a short-term windfall to fund the Ukraine war.
- Saul David notes oil at $113/barrel and UK gas rises of ~35%, increasing Russian revenue and bargaining power.
Putin Could Become Trump’s Broker With Leverage
- A potential Trump off-ramp with Putin as broker could trade US support for Ukraine in exchange for mediation with Iran.
- Patrick Bishop warns Trump sees Putin as a friend and might pressure the US away from Ukraine if he needs an exit.
Prepare For Possible Cuts To US Support
- Expect US policy changes that would harm Ukrainian resupply: stop prioritized US weapons programs and limit intelligence sharing.
- Saul David lists potential cuts including ending the Pearl Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List and satellite targeting support.