Less Noise, More Signal This textbook indicator will tell you when Bitcoin has bottomed
Mar 13, 2026
Gabriel Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks and former bank strategist, brings institutional perspective on Bitcoin market structure. He discusses the October 10 market reset, RSI divergence and potential V-shaped retest, how basis trades and vol-selling changed hedge fund behavior, ETF holding stickiness, and macro and regulatory factors that shape bottom signals.
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October 10 Deleveraging Reset
- October 10th was a structural deleveraging event that destroyed ~ $20B of forced liquidations and reset the speculative layer of Bitcoin markets.
- Gabriel Selby explains this shifted fast money out and started a transition toward stickier institutional holders like RIAs and sovereign wealth funds.
RSI Divergence As Bottom Signal
- A textbook RSI divergence can signal a bottom: RSI makes a higher low while Bitcoin price makes a lower low before a V-shaped bounce.
- Selby expects a retest below $60k with RSI divergence setting up a classic bottom formation.
Basis Compression Drove Hedge Fund Exodus
- Basis compression reduced the attractiveness of the long-spot/short-futures basis trade, driving many hedge funds to exit and reducing levered participation.
- Selby notes basis now rivals T-bill yields so funds can't profitably lever the trade without large spreads.