Front Burner Is a global food crisis looming?
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Apr 20, 2026 
Marcia Brown, a Politico journalist covering food and agriculture, breaks down how fertilizer supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz threaten planting seasons. She discusses soaring fertilizer and fuel prices, which crops and countries will feel it first, policy responses like export controls and bailouts, and how weather risks like El Niño could make things worse.
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Strait Closure Sparks Immediate Fertilizer Shock
- The Strait of Hormuz closure immediately disrupted fertilizer flows because about a third of seaborne fertilizer passes through it.
- Urea, ammonia and phosphate shipments stalled during planting season, spiking prices and squeezing farmers who need inputs now.
India Faces Acute Ammonia Shortages
- India has been hit hard because three quarters of its ammonia supply comes from the Middle East, leaving farmers unable to purchase fertilizer now.
- Traders are delaying deliveries 15–20 days and sometimes forcing bulk purchases before selling small parcels.
Commodity Prices Spiked And Farmers Can't Afford Inputs
- Global fertilizer and fuel commodities jumped: urea and farm diesel surged over 40%, ammonia about 30%, and increases in nitrogen, DAP and potash followed.
- The American Farm Bureau found 70% of US farmers say they can't afford needed fertilizer this season.