Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief: Will the Ceasefire Hold? Analyzing Tehran's High-Stakes Diplomacy
Apr 16, 2026
Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media and veteran analyst of Persian Gulf power dynamics, breaks down Tehran’s wartime decision-making and internal power struggles. He outlines Iran’s Hormuz strategy and economic leverage. He explores whether the IRGC can shift away from regional militias and how negotiators might buy time for technical nuclear compromises.
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Institutional Continuity Behind Iran's Wartime Decisions
- Iran's decision-making is institutionalized through the Supreme National Security Council and an activated Supreme Defense Council, ensuring continuity despite assassinations.
- Conservatives dominated after the JCPOA collapse and wartime management shifted real power to military-led institutions under Khamenei's patronage.
Irrationality As A Deliberate Deterrent
- Iran deliberately adopted seemingly irrational tactics to regain deterrence after conventional restraint failed.
- Mohamad Ali Shabani explains that appearing irrational can be the rational strategy to re-establish deterrence after attacks and signal resolve.
Iran Seeks Truce That Protects Its Regional Network
- Iran wants any truce to include its regional allies, proposing an MOU that covers respective allies rather than just bilateral US-Iran terms.
- Shabani notes Iran may formalize militias within state structures (e.g., PMU in Iraq) to shift influence into state-to-state frameworks.