Science Friday How El Niño shapes the world’s weather trends
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May 12, 2026 
Dr. Dillon Amaya, a NOAA research scientist who studies ocean and climate dynamics, explains how El Niño forms and why this year might be unusually strong. He walks through model odds and what a “super” El Niño means. Short sentences cover impacts on U.S. weather, global rainfall shifts, ocean heat waves, and risks to corals and fisheries.
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What El Niño Actually Is And Why A Super Event Matters
- El Niño is a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific defined as >0.5°C anomaly for five consecutive three-month averages.
- A "super" El Niño means roughly ~2°C above normal and strongly influences the atmosphere despite small surface temperature change.
How An El Niño Gets Started
- El Niño forms when trade winds relax and warm water sloshes east from the western Pacific toward the coast of Peru.
- That eastward shift concentrates warmth and rainfall where it normally doesn't occur, initiating global atmospheric waves.
Why Tropical Rainfall Shifts Drive Global Weather
- El Niño redistributes tropical rainfall from the western to the eastern equatorial Pacific, injecting heat and energy into the atmosphere.
- That extra atmospheric heating launches waves that alter the jet stream and storm tracks globally, including North America.