Trader Mindset You can't trust indicators - learn to live with the uncertainty
Oct 13, 2020
A trader pushes back against relying on technical indicators and urges looking at price first. They discuss accepting uncertainty instead of chasing perfect signals. Risk management, allocation, and avoiding chart clutter get priority. Seasonality in commodities and relative strength for stocks are highlighted as the few dependable tools.
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Indicators Don’t Predict — They Confirm
- Michael Martin argues you cannot reliably count on any technical indicators for predictive value.
- Indicators only confirm what price already shows, so learn to accept uncertainty instead of seeking false security.
Accept Uncertainty To Stop Grinding
- Learn to live with uncertainty instead of searching for an indicator that gives security.
- If you don't change a distrustful paradigm, you'll keep grinding forever.
Use Seasonality In Commodities
- Rely on seasonality in commodities because it reflects centuries of economic activity.
- Study crop years and recurring patterns like refinery maintenance and driving/heating seasons.
