Saxo Market Call Global markets are still only pricing for modest disruptions from Iran war.
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Mar 9, 2026 
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, a specialist in energy and commodities markets. He discusses how energy—not metals—is driving price moves. Short-term supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz and a critical two-week window are highlighted. LNG, diesel and jet fuel squeezes, potential extreme oil spikes if flows stay shut, and mitigation options like strategic reserves and rerouting are explored.
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Markets Showing Regional Dispersion To Iran Shock
- Global markets are taking the Iran war in stride so far, with U.S. indices down modestly while Europe and Asia saw larger moves.
- John Hardy notes NASDAQ fell ~1.5% Friday while Europe dropped ~2.5% and Japan plunged intraday, showing regional dispersion tied to energy vulnerability.
Gold Faces Safe Haven Demand But Positioning Limits
- Precious metals face conflicting forces: safe-haven demand versus recent deleveraging and dollar strength.
- Ole Hansen says metals were heavily bid earlier but cash needs and a stronger dollar trimmed that support despite inflationary geopolitics.
Small Supply Shifts Can Bigly Move Oil Prices
- Large volumes are being shut in and Strait of Hormuz disruptions can quickly spike prices because oil markets are finely tuned.
- Ole Hansen highlights up to 18 million barrels a day affected and says even a few hundred thousand barrels can move the market significantly.