ChinaTalk Iran: No Save Point
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Mar 13, 2026 
Shashank Joshi, historian and foreign-policy analyst at The Economist, joins to dissect the Iran war’s second week. He critiques CENTCOM’s target-count logic. He warns about mine and drone vulnerabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. He debates the feasibility of raids to seize enriched uranium and explains how AI targeting can churn out targets without a clear victory plan.
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Target Count Is Not Strategy
- CENTCOM's 6,000-target tally is a Vietnam-style body count that emphasizes inputs over strategic effects.
- Shashank Joshi warns hitting thousands of targets doesn't show progress on reopening Hormuz or collapsing the regime and may worsen Iran's nuclear incentives.
Left Of Launch Worked Against Ballistic Missiles
- Suppression of ballistic missile launches has been effective due to ISR and precision strike left of launch.
- Shashank notes ballistic launch cadence dropped substantially, though Shahid drones remain hard to suppress.
Mine Clearing Was A Known Readiness Gap
- The US lacked mine countermeasure readiness in the Gulf because MCM Avenger ships were withdrawn and LCS modules were not fully deployed.
- Fifth Fleet personnel warned available assets plus reserve Sea Stallion helicopters would take weeks to mobilize to clear a mined Hormuz.