On Investing

Mixed Signals & Moving Targets

Feb 20, 2026
Kevin Gordon, Head of Global Macro Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, offers concise macro perspective and policy context. Conversation covers how much capex — including AI-driven investment — moved recent GDP. They also tackle tariffs and goods inflation. Slowing immigration and labor force trends as potential long-term constraints are highlighted.
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INSIGHT

Fed Minutes Reveal Split Outlook

  • The Fed minutes showed a split committee with several members favoring a two-sided outlook on rates.
  • Markets may be too priced for cuts given participants' view that the labor market has stabilized.
INSIGHT

Soft Surveys Diverge From Hard Data

  • Survey-based 'soft' data shows more pessimism while hard data remains relatively strong.
  • This divergence drives volatility and mixed signals for interpreting the economy.
ADVICE

Stick To Diversification Amid AI Rotations

  • Expect rapid rotations and wide dispersion across stocks as AI disruptions cascade through sectors.
  • Maintain tried-and-true diversification discipline to navigate the swirl.
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