Is This Rally A Bull Trap?? | Lance Roberts

41 snips

Apr 26, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and market commentator, offers timely market analysis and portfolio tactics. He discusses whether the recent rally is sustainable, warns about overbought semiconductor and AI stocks, and examines oil shock risks, the US dollar, and technical entry points. He also outlines trimming winners, rebalancing, and tactical trades in energy and data-center related names.

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INSIGHT

Shallow Pullbacks Are Typical In Strong Rallies

In strong trending markets pullbacks tend to be shallow or sideways consolidations, with the 20-day moving average as first key support.
Lance says RSI above 50 implies corrections remain limited and buying dips near 20/100 DMA is preferable.

ADVICE

Use Moving Averages To Time Profit Taking

Use moving average deviations to guide profit-taking: when price outruns averages, take risk off the table.
Lance reduced outsized winners down to target weights after rapid April–May advances.

INSIGHT

Earnings Revisions Drive Market Repricing

Earnings revision direction matters more than headline earnings levels; negative macro shocks (e.g., persistent higher oil) can force downward revisions and reprice markets.
Lance illustrates how falling E estimates compress valuations.

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comThe markets just hit new all-time highs yesterday.That's after one of the most violent face-ripping V-bottoms in market history.And there are a lot of technical indicators still flashing green, suggesting this rally still has room to run even higher.Is that likely?Or are stocks setting up a classic bull trap?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the risks in semiconductors and AI stocks, oil shock & recession concerns, the US dollar, taxes and, of course, Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#oilprice #bullmarket #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.