In it to Win it Shocking Forecast: Why Platinum's Deficit Will Last to 2029!
Ed Sterck of the World Platinum Investment Council breaks down why platinum is heading for a deep, sustained supply deficit through 2029, while palladium is shifting into surplus driven by increased recycling. He explains how structural factors like supply constraints, vehicle electrification, and substitution trends are reshaping the outlook for both metals.
Sterck also highlights the broader impact of macro trends including a weakening US dollar, central bank gold buying, and potential US tariffs. With China's platinum jewelry demand rising and geopolitical risks tightening supply chains, platinum may offer strong upside. This timely update offers a clear view into precious metals markets under pressure.
Connect with Ed Sterck!
YouTube: https://platinuminvestment.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/world-platinum-investment-council/
🔥 Key Topics Discussed
✅ Why platinum is expected to stay in a long-term supply deficit ✅ How palladium is shifting into surplus due to increased recycling ✅ The role of Russia and South Africa in global supply risks ✅ Impact of central bank gold buying and a weakening US dollar ✅ Effects of electrification and substitution on PGM demand ✅ How tariffs and US policy could reshape critical mineral flows ✅ China's rising platinum jewelry demand and industrial use ✅ Why above-ground inventories are not enough to cover shortages ✅ Market tightness and price inelasticity in the platinum sector ✅ Shifting demand between ICE, hybrid, and electric vehicles ✅ Outlook for mine production and future investment challenges
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Chapters:
00:00 Ed Sterck Introduction
01:28 Platinum outlook and sustained deficit
04:57 Palladium trends and surplus expectations
06:09 Impact of New York Platinum Week
09:02 US critical minerals and Section 232 investigation
15:13 Charts showing platinum deficits through 2029
20:53 Forward curve analysis and future pricing
22:19 Lease rates and platinum market signals
26:23 Mining cost curve and long-term supply outlook
28:55 History of US tariffs and income tax
31:18 Tariff uncertainty and automotive demand
36:23 China's platinum imports and price sensitivity
40:55 ETF holdings and above-ground inventories
45:59 Platinum use in electric vehicles
46:57 Hybrid vs ICE vehicle PGM demand
48:05 Global platinum supply by country
49:21 Final thoughts on fundamentals and outlook
51:09 Where to find Ed Sterck's research
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