The Athletic FC Podcast Who are the Champions League favourites after the last 16?
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Mar 22, 2026 Duncan Alexander, football data specialist offering statistical context. Mark Carey, match analyst with sharp observational reporting. Michael Cox, tactics expert known for deep tactical and historical insight. They debate the 68-goal Round of 16 spike. They argue how removing away goals altered approaches. They unpack Manchester City’s exit, Guardiola’s European record, and which teams look like favourites: Bayern, Arsenal and Barcelona among others.
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Premier League Depth Masks Weak Top Teams
- Several English clubs underperformed in Europe because their top teams simply aren't playing at elite levels this season.
- Michael Cox argued Premier League strength this year lies in depth and competitiveness, not in superior top-end teams.
Guardiola's City Underachieve In Big Knockouts
- Manchester City's Champions League record under Guardiola is mixed: frequent favoritism but relatively few semifinals and one win in ten years.
- Cox calculated bookmakers' odds suggested City perhaps should have won it twice, highlighting underachievement in big knockout stages.
City's Narrow Build Has Left Them Exposed
- City's tactical tweaks this season (narrow build, redeploying attackers into defensive roles) left them vulnerable to quick counters.
- Cox highlighted Rodri's form dip and players used out of natural defensive positions as causes.