Bits + Bips Why Gas Prices, Not Oil, Determine What You Pay for Electricity
Mar 27, 2026
Sean Murray, Head of Special Projects and Crypto Lead at Fuse Energy, is an energy markets expert who maps how gas, not oil, drives electricity prices. He discusses LNG disruptions, the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar facility attack, and why long-term damage to big processing plants tightens supply. The conversation traces ripple effects across fertilizers, jet fuel, and metals.
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Gas Prices Dictate Electricity Costs
- Electricity prices are driven primarily by natural gas, not crude oil.
- Gas fuels combined-cycle turbines and the market price-discovery for power is heavily indexed to gas, directly moving consumer electricity costs.
Europe Faces More Gas Vulnerability Than The US
- Europe is highly exposed to global LNG flows and seasonal storage cycles, while the US is more insulated by shale and Henry Hub pricing.
- US-Europe gas price decoupling exists now because US export capacity is still ramping, but it may converge as exports grow.
Gas Prices Are Meaningfully Elevated Right Now
- Current gas prices are about 50–70% above normal levels, lifting electricity and related energy costs.
- The rise is linked to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and attacks that reduced LNG flows, though the spike is smaller than during Russia–Ukraine extremes.